Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Outlawing Macroeconomic Models

Arnold Kling of EconLib:

…The scientific basis for the sort of macroeconometric models that I learned to work with early in my career has been in doubt for thirty years. In that time, I cannot recall seeing a single peer-reviewed journal article that uses such models. And yet, those are the models that the Fed, the CBO, and private consulting firms use to make forecasts and assess the impact of stimulus measures.

The text for our class does a better job of this than many, but a lot of the models that have been pushed to later chapters fall under this criticism.

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